Swanson's law is an observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At present rates, costs halve about every 10 years.[1] The Law is named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower Corporation, a solar panel manufacturer.[2] Swanson's Law has been compared to Moore's law. Crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell prices have fallen from $76.67 per watt in 1977 to $0.36 per watt in 2014.[3][4][5] Plotting the module price (in $/Wp) versus time shows a dropping by 10% per year.[6]
Vorlage:As of, the U.S. had 40 gigawatts (GW) of installed photovoltaic capacity, having almost doubled in capacity from the previous year.[7] In the twelve months through March 2017, utility scale solar power generated 38.3 terawatt-hours (TWh), 0.94% of total U.S. electricity. During the same time period total solar generation, including estimated distributed solar photovoltaic generation, was 59.8 TWh, 1.47 % of total U.S. electricity.[8] Based on this trend, solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.[6]
The term Swanson's Law appears to have originated with an article in The Economist published in late 2012.[3][4] It is a misnomer in that Swanson was not the first person to make this observation. The method used by Swanson is more commonly referred to as learning curve or experience curve analysis. It was first developed and applied to the aeronautics industry in the mid-1930s,[9] and saw its first widespread application to the photovoltaics industry in the mid-1990s.[10]
See also
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Bearbeiten- ↑ [1]
- ↑ Solar Cell Technology Solutions. In: SunPower Corporation. Note: Read more about current innovations in solar technology.
- ↑ a b Geoffrey Carr: Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative In: The Economist, 21. November 2012. Abgerufen am 28. Dezember 2012
- ↑ a b Staff writer: Pricing Sunshine In: The Economist, 28. Dezember 2012
- ↑ R. M. Swanson: A vision for crystalline silicon photovoltaics. In: Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications. 14. Jahrgang, 2006, S. 443–453, doi:10.1002/pip.709 (wiley.com).
- ↑ a b J. Doyne Farmer, François Lafond: How predictable is technological progress? 2. November 2015 (10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001). License: cc. Note: Appendix F. A trend extrapolation of solar energy capacity.
- ↑ Mike Munsell: US Solar Market Grows 95% in 2016, Smashes Records. Greentech Media, 15. Februar 2017.
- ↑ US Energy Information Administration, Table 1.1.A. Net Generation by Other Renewable Sources: Total (All Sectors), 2003-July 2013, Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), 2003-Dec2013, accessed 1 December 2015.
- ↑ T. P. Wright: Factors affecting the costs of airplanes. In: Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences. 3. Jahrgang, 1936, S. 122–128, doi:10.2514/8.155.
- ↑ G. J. Schaeffer, E. Alsema, A. Seebregts, L. Beurskens, H. de Moor, W. van Sark, M. Durstewitz, M. Perrin, P. Boulanger: Learning from the Sun. In: Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands. 2004, abgerufen am 15. August 2013.